The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China rose by 0.2 per cent in November 2024 to 151.3 (2016=100), building on a 0.6 per cent increase in October. Over the six months from May to November 2024, the Index grew by 3.4 per cent, a substantial improvement compared to the 0.7 per cent growth recorded in the prior six-month period, The Conference Board said in a press release.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China decreased by 0.1 per cent in November 2024, reflecting ongoing declines in consumer confidence, a weak manufacturing PMI, and logistics challenges.
Meanwhile, CEI rose by 0.2 per cent, showing stronger current conditions.
China’s GDP growth is projected at 4.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.5 per cent in 2025.
“The China LEI decreased slightly in November, adhering to the general downward trend that began in early 2022. A struggling consumer confidence continued to weigh most heavily on the headline Index. The Logistics Prosperity Index and a soft manufacturing PMI also fuelled the decline,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate at The Conference Board.
“Although the semi- and annual growth rates are less negative than in previous months, growth prospects are uncertain, especially against the persisting headwinds from the property downturn. While the effects of stimulus measures adopted in the fall should materialise next year, the potential tariffs on Chinese goods from the incoming US administration may dampen growth ahead. Overall, The Conference Board currently projects China’s annual real GDP growth at 4.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.5 per cent in 2025,” added Hu.
LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
