On Thursday, Seaport Global Securities adjusted its stance on shares of FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE:), downgrading the utility company from Buy to Neutral. The shift in rating comes as the market anticipates further details on FirstEnergy’s earnings potential in Ohio.
Despite the company’s operational optimization and balance sheet deleveraging, as well as substantial growth in capital expenditures and regulatory victories in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) discount has remained static.
The analyst pointed out that the full litigation of FirstEnergy’s distribution rate case in Ohio is necessary to gain clarity, with an outcome not expected until late 2025. FirstEnergy recently filed to withdraw its Electric Security Plan V (ESP V) in Ohio and intends to submit ESP VI in the first quarter of 2025.
The concurrent review of the ESP with the distribution rate case could potentially benefit FirstEnergy in the long term. However, it also introduces greater regulatory uncertainty in Ohio for the upcoming year.
The rising capacity and energy prices within the PJM Interconnection, a regional transmission organization, are not anticipated to mitigate the risks associated with the Ohio market. Furthermore, the analyst noted that FirstEnergy does not have rate-based generation in either Pennsylvania or New Jersey, which could be a factor in the company’s ability to navigate the regulatory landscape.
While the possibility of a power purchase agreement (PPA)-based new build in Ohio or Pennsylvania was acknowledged, with a return on equity for utilities, the analyst expressed a preference for playing such opportunities through PPL Corp (NYSE:). rather than FirstEnergy. This perspective led to the decision to downgrade FirstEnergy’s stock rating to Neutral.
In other recent news, FirstEnergy Corp has reported a slight dip in GAAP earnings per share in its Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, compared to the same quarter in 2023. The operating earnings guidance for the year has been narrowed, despite challenges such as higher storm-related expenses and the impact of a 30% sale of FirstEnergy Transmission.
To enhance grid reliability and customer experience, the company has increased its capital investment plan for 2024 by 24%. A joint development agreement for regional transmission projects has been entered, potentially bringing in a $3.8 billion investment.
Fitch has upgraded FirstEnergy’s issuer and unsecured credit ratings, indicating an improved financial position. These are recent developments that reflect the company’s commitment to its long-term growth and operational excellence.
Notably, the company has reaffirmed its long-term growth rate at 6% to 8% with a $26 billion five-year capital expenditure plan through 2028. However, it is worth noting that storm restoration expenses and the sale of a 30% stake in FirstEnergy Transmission have had an impact on earnings.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement the analysis of FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE:FE) following its downgrade by Seaport Global Securities, InvestingPro data offers additional context. Despite the regulatory uncertainties highlighted in the article, FirstEnergy maintains a solid dividend yield of 4.03%, with a track record of 27 consecutive years of dividend payments. This consistency may provide some reassurance to income-focused investors during the period of regulatory ambiguity in Ohio.
The company’s P/E ratio of 27.63 and adjusted P/E ratio of 25.49 for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 reflect the market’s current valuation of the stock. Interestingly, an InvestingPro Tip suggests that FE is “Trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth,” which could indicate potential value for investors looking beyond the immediate regulatory challenges.
Moreover, FirstEnergy’s revenue growth of 4.3% over the last twelve months and a quarterly growth of 6.94% in Q3 2024 demonstrate the company’s ability to expand its top line despite the regulatory headwinds. This growth, coupled with the InvestingPro Tip that analysts predict profitability for the current year, may offer a counterpoint to the concerns raised in the downgrade.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips for FirstEnergy, providing a deeper understanding of the company’s financial health and market position.
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