If investors and music companies want high streaming growth rates, they should look beyond the suddenly sluggish U.S. market.
Of the few countries that have released midyear recorded music industry figures, the U.S. has the lowest growth rate for streaming — by far. Japan, Brazil, Italy, Germany and Spain each easily bested the 3.8% growth rate mustered by the U.S. in the first half of 2024, though they are far smaller markets.
In Brazil, the ninth-largest market in 2023, streaming revenue improved 21.1% to 1.442 billion BRL ($284 million) in the first half of 2024, according to the country’s trade group, Pro-Música Brasil. Subscription revenue rocketed 28.4% to 995 million BRL ($196 million) while ad-supported streaming rose just 6.6% to 436 million BRL ($86 million).
Streaming accounts for 99% of total revenue in Brazil, a market that was early to adopt streaming platforms. (Pro-Música Brasil did not include synch and performance royalties in the midyear numbers. In 2023, those two segments accounted for 12% of Brazil’s total revenue.) The former internet radio service Rdio — acquired by Pandora in 2015 — launched in Brazil in 2011. Muve Music, acquired by Deezer in 2015, launched a partnership with leading mobile carrier TIM in 2013. Deezer still powers TIM’s music streaming platform and extended that partnership in January.
Important markets in Asia and Europe also delivered impressive streaming gains in the first half of the year. Spain nearly matched Brazil with 19.1% streaming growth and a 16.6% improvement in total revenue. In Italy, recorded music revenue jumped 15.1% and streaming revenue, which accounts for 80% of the total market, grew 18.1%. (Figures in currency were not provided by Italy’s trade group, FIMI.) The world’s second- and fourth-largest markets, Japan and Germany, had streaming gains of 12.7% and 9.0%, respectively.
In aggregate, the five ex-U.S. markets grew 12.2% compared to the first half of 2023, with the smallest markets having the highest streaming growth rates. Brazil’s market is less than 3% the size of the U.S., while Spain and Italy are 3% and 4% the size of the world’s largest market, respectively. Germany’s market is 15% as big as the U.S. Japan is just a quarter of its size.
What the U.S. lacks in momentum it makes up for in size. Based on total market revenue for 2023, the U.S. was more than twice the size of the five ex-U.S. markets combined — $11.04 billion to $5.47 billion, according to IFPI figures. In fact, the U.S. is so large that a 3.8% streaming gain was worth $404 million — more than the entire Spanish recorded music market ($355 million) and nearly as big as Italy’s ($477 million). To reiterate, that’s not just streaming — we’re talking about those countries’ entire market revenue.
The rate of streaming growth underpins much of the money flowing into the music business. Investors and companies are betting the global market can generate nearly double-digit growth through the end of the decade. The latest Goldman Sachs “Music in the Air” report, a standard reference point for gauging the potential of music as an investment, forecasts that global streaming revenue will grow at a 10% compound annual growth rate through 2030. That would turn last year’s $19.3 billion streaming market into $37.8 billion by the end of the decade.
But the enormity of the U.S. market, which accounted for 42% of global streaming revenue in 2023, according to the IFPI, means other markets will need to continue those rapid paces for the global market to maintain that 10% streaming growth rate. The five ex-U.S. markets’ 12.2% growth rate is nearly halved to 6.4% when their $5.47 billion total value is combined with the U.S. market, which is worth $11.04 billion.
Developing markets certainly have the potential to contribute to global growth, but many of the most populous countries — India, Indonesia, the Philippines — are relatively small and based more on advertising than high-value subscriptions. For the math to work, the global market needs a strong U.S.
