Where Growth Meets Intelligence: The Critical Edge in Hospitality Expansion

The first half of 2025 has made one thing unmistakably clear: the hospitality industry is no longer expanding under the luxury of time. Between rising development costs and intensifying brand crowding in traditional markets, hotel growth now demands speed, precision, and – above all else – context.

Debt for ground-up construction has tightened, even for well-capitalized sponsors. Institutional equity is becoming more selective, favouring defensible locations with measurable, data-driven narratives. Meanwhile, prime urban and leisure zones – once seen as safe havens – are nearing saturation, with land values outpacing earnings potential and comp sets blurring into one another. Simply put, the margin for site selection error is shrinking.

Yet the pressure to grow hasn’t softened. If anything, it’s intensified. Brands are under mandate to expand, developers are eager to deploy capital before cycle shifts, and market white space is vanishing by the quarter. The difference now is that finding viable development zones – or “pockets of value” – requires a much sharper lens than before.

That lens is Location Intelligence (LI). And in this environment, LI is no longer just a tool; it’s becoming the most essential food in the strategic diet of brands and developers alike.

A new compass for an overcrowded map

The traditional map is no longer enough. Knowing that a city’s RevPAR is rising or that population growth is trending upward tells us very little about where within that city to build – or whether to build at all. Those are yesterday’s metrics for yesterday’s markets.

Today’s location strategist doesn’t ask simply, “Is this market growing?” They ask:

• Which micro districts are showing divergence in guest behaviour?
• Where are zoning codes about to shift?
• Which corridors are absorbing STR pressure without cannibalizing hotel demand?
• What streets are seeing high social engagement but low hotel coverage?

This is what true ‘Location Intelligence’ looks like. It’s not about maps and pins. It’s about understanding the invisible systems underneath a place – its rhythms, its frictions, its readiness—and seeing what others overlook.

In early 2025, for example, developers continued to chase oversubscribed submarkets in gateway cities, even as mobility data and psychographic shifts suggested traveller migration into adjacent fringe districts with more potential and less resistance. Unless you’re reading across geosocial sentiment, zoning overlays, and transportation timelines all at once, you miss the signal. A data-native consultant doesn’t.

Time is not on our side

What makes comprehensive LI more critical now than ever isn’t just competition – it’s urgency. Deals must be evaluated faster. Capital partners expect sharper logic. And regulatory bottlenecks are turning seemingly feasible sites into drawn-out gambles.

High-functioning location analysis provides the speed the market now demands – without sacrificing depth. It tells us, sometimes in days rather than months, which sites are truly executable. It reveals which emerging neighbourhoods are more than trendy – they’re viable. And it filters out false positives: submarkets that perform on paper but collapse under closer scrutiny.

Smart advisors are compressing the decision cycle not by cutting corners, but by drawing from broader, better data stacks – and interpreting them with clarity.

Hospitality is a non-zero sum game

There’s a growing misconception in the market that all growth is a zero-sum game. That for one hotel to open, another must lose share. That a new flag in a market automatically destabilizes the balance. But hospitality done well doesn’t cannibalize – it catalyses.

When location strategy is driven by comprehensive intelligence, growth becomes a non-zero sum game. It reveals and activates demand that might otherwise go uncaptured. It gives rise to new trip types, new customer cohorts, and new economic gravity. It elevates neighbourhoods, not just occupancies.

Location Intelligence, interpreted through a multidimensional lens, helps brands and developers think beyond binary choices – urban or rural, primary or secondary, branded or independent. It shows how to position products in ways that grow the pie, not just redistribute it.

What location intelligence really includes

While the term “Location Intelligence” is often used broadly, at Horwath HTL, we approach it as a precise and structured methodology – engineered to deliver fast, defensible answers to complex growth questions. Our proprietary framework incorporates multiple, integrated layers of spatial, economic, behavioural, and operational insight, all calibrated to the needs of hospitality brands and developers seeking targeted, sustainable expansion.

Here’s what goes into our LI framework:

1. ETL and data structuring

We begin with a disciplined Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) process—pulling raw data from numerous sources and refining it for comparative analysis. This includes:

• Travel demand indicators (airlift data, tourism board metrics, feeder market behaviour)
• Lodging performance trends (STR-style data, RevPAR indexing, comp set volatility)
• Localized booking and search data from digital travel platforms
• Urban planning documents and capital investment forecasts
• Parcel-level land data, permitting history, and pipeline tracking

This raw information is standardized and structured across geographies and market types to enable clear, apples-to-apples comparison.

2. Geo-spatial modelling and pattern recognition

Using geospatial tools and AI-assisted analytics, we:

• Identify clustering of experiential demand (arts, wellness, food & beverage density)
• Detect mobility corridors and walkability “heat zones”
• Map access to and from key infrastructure (airports, ports, transit hubs)
• Trace traveller movement via anonymized mobile data to determine actual behaviour, not assumptions
• Spot gaps in chain scale and product segmentation within defined radius thresholds

These models help us isolate underrepresented, over-performing, or soon-to-be-disrupted nodes—the most promising targets for future hotel positioning.

3. Operational and competitive layering

We overlay operating context, including:

• Operating partner availability and track record in the market
• Labor supply dynamics (especially for service-intensive product types)
• Third-party and franchise management feasibility
• Land use flexibility and entitlement constraints
• Adjacency to existing brand flags or related concepts

This step ensures that market gaps are not just theoretical—they are developable, executable, and brand-appropriate

4. Psychographic and sentiment inputs

We complement hard data with behavioural insight:

• Psychographic segmentation based on consumer personas and trip intent
• NLP (natural language processing) scans of social chatter, review platforms, and local media to gauge sentiment
• Brand compatibility modelling based on emotional drivers: aspiration, escape, wellness, connection, authenticity
• Regional alignment with evolving themes (post-urban migration, regenerative tourism, conscious luxury)

This component helps us frame not just where people are going, but why—and what kind of product they’ll resonate with when they get there.

5. Strategic filters and scenario planning

Finally, we customize outputs for brand and investor decision-making by applying:

• Strategic filters (development timelines, programmatic priorities, ESG overlays, existing flag proximity)
• Capital structuring constraints (cost basis targets, delivery time risk, hold periods)
• Scenario testing (best-case vs. base-case vs. friction-adjusted performance potential)
• Sensitivity analysis across entitlement timelines, construction cost escalators, and demand ramp profiles

The result is not just a ranked list of opportunities, but a tailored matrix of actionable, prioritized options – each supported by clear rationale, stakeholder alignment, and transparent risk-reward profiling.

What insight-led expansion looks like

Artificial intelligence and software tools have added real value to the hospitality site selection process. They can model drive times, highlight gaps in competitive coverage, and estimate performance based on historical trends. These tools are effective at organizing data and surfacing patterns that would take far longer to identify manually.

But they don’t replace context.

They don’t explain why a planning board consistently blocks height variances in one district but fast-tracks them in another. They don’t pick up on reputational nuances – why a block with solid foot traffic underperforms due to longstanding stigma or fractured tenant mix. And they don’t flag the impact of a zoning amendment that, while minor on paper, could significantly affect future density or land use viability.

This is where experienced advisors bring value. They use data as a starting point, not an answer. They understand that LI is about more than metrics – it’s about how the pieces fit together within the broader environment: planning frameworks, development pipelines, consumer behaviour shifts, and brand or investor-specific constraints.

Professionals who work this way know how to move between tools and practical realities. They use dashboards, but they also know when to pressure-test the outputs. They think beyond the “where” to focus on the timing, feasibility, and alignment of a location with broader goals.

Insight-led expansion isn’t about chasing the hottest submarket or replicating past formulas. It’s about asking the right questions:

• What’s changing here that others haven’t noticed yet?
• What obstacles could affect execution?
• How does this location support – not just allow – what the brand is trying to do?

When those questions are answered clearly and early, it builds confidence. It speeds up decision-making. And it reduces the likelihood of surprises later in the process.

In the current environment, where timelines are tight and the margin for missteps is slim, that kind of clarity is more than helpful – it’s necessary.

All the right moves

In 2025, the race for high-quality development sites isn’t won by the first to move – it’s won by the first to move correctly. The margin for error has tightened. Time is running out to capture real, lasting value, and the tolerance for speculative plays is dwindling fast. In this environment, comprehensive Location Intelligence is no longer a differentiator – it’s a prerequisite.

But data alone doesn’t chart a course. Tools don’t interpret signals. The advantage lies with those who can translate information into insight – those who can read across economic patterns, regulatory hurdles, shifting consumer behaviours, and on-the-ground feasibility to make confident, nuanced decisions.

Experienced professionals know this. They don’t rely on averages or instinct alone. They apply layered intelligence: zoning and entitlements, infrastructure readiness, labour supply constraints, brand adjacency, psychographic trends, and long-term demand triggers. They weigh speed against strategy, pressure against potential, and data against on-the-ground complexity.

Growth today isn’t about where you can build. It’s about why it matters, what value you’re unlocking, and how quickly you can capitalize before someone else sees the same thing.

Bryan Younge – Managing Partner at Horwath HTL. Connect with Bryan on LinkedIn.

This article originally appeared on Horwath HTL.