The global cotton sector may face notable challenges in 2025, as production continues to rise faster than demand. Economic forecasts suggest growth will match last year’s pace, while oil prices are trading lower, and cotton futures indicate stability for the year ahead, as per the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA).
The global cotton sector may face challenges in 2025 as production outpaces demand.
Brazil led 2024 exports, shipping a record 2.77 million tons, driven by significant Chinese imports.
High stocks and limited demand could pressure prices, though a stronger dollar may aid exports.
USDA projects a 3.9 per cent rise in global supply for 2024/25, with consumption up 1.3 per cent.
Brazil concluded 2024 as the world’s major cotton exporter, shipping 2.77 million tons, overtaking the United States, which exported 2.37 million tons. A significant factor behind Brazil’s record exports was China, which imported 924.7 thousand tons.
Cotton prices in Brazil are likely to face downward pressure due to high ending stocks, limited global demand, and marginal global economic growth. However, the Brazilian real’s devaluation against the US dollar could enhance export competitiveness, potentially stabilizing prices.
Conab estimates that Brazil’s 2024/25 cotton crop planted area may grow by 3 per cent, reaching 2 million hectares. Productivity is projected to decline by 3.1 per cent compared to the previous season, to 1,845 kilos per hectare. Total production for the 2024/25 crop is anticipated at 3.695 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 per cent from the prior season.
Globally, USDA data indicates a 3.9 per cent rise in supply for the 2024/25 season, totalling 25.558 million tons. World cotton consumption is projected to increase by 1.3 per cent in the same period, reaching 25.211 million tons.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
