The Economic Experts Survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute for Economic Research, Germany and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy.
The Q4 2024 Economic Experts Survey forecasts a global inflation rate of 3.9 per cent for 2025.
With an average expected inflation rate of 3.5 per cent for 2026, expectations globally are 0.4 percentage points (pp) lower compared to expectations for 2025.
In the long term up to 2028, inflation expectations are at 3.5 per cent, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter (3.6 per cent).
With an average expected inflation rate of 3.5 per cent for 2026, expectations globally are 0.4 percentage points (pp) lower compared to expectations for 2025. In the long term up to 2028, inflation expectations are also at 3.5 per cent. This represents a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter (3.6 per cent). Long-term inflation expectations are hence also stagnating, ifo Institute said in a press release.
For 2025, the survey expects the lowest inflation rates in Western Europe (2.1 per cent). Expectations in North America, Oceania and Northern Europe are slightly higher (2.6-2.7 per cent). Expectations in other parts of Europe (Southern Europe: 3.5 per cent, Eastern Europe: 7.5 per cent) remain above central banks’ inflation targets.
Within Asia, there is substantial heterogeneity across subregions. While expectations in Eastern Asia (2.9 per cent) and South-Eastern Asia (3.2 per cent) are only slightly elevated compared to inflation targets, expectations are significantly higher in Western, Southern and Central Asia (7.3, 7.4 and 11.1 per cent respectively). Except for Southern Africa (4.4 per cent), all other African regions expect short-run inflation rates to be well above average (Western Africa: 10.8 per cent; Middle Africa: 13.5 per cent; Eastern Africa 27.6 per cent; Northern Africa 37.2 per cent).
For 2028, the survey expects inflation rates in Western Europe (2.0 per cent), Northern Europe (2.5 per cent), Oceania (2.5 per cent) to almost return to or approach the 2 per cent inflation rate targeted by many central banks. However, for some subregions, the expectations are higher than in the previous quarter. Higher long-term inflation expectations are recorded, for example in Southern Europe (2.7 per cent), Northern America (2.9 per cent), Eastern Europe (4.8 per cent) Eastern Asia (3.0 per cent), Southern Asia (8.1 per cent), and in Southern Africa (3.8 per cent). The highest long-term inflation rates are expected in Middle Africa (17 per cent) and Eastern Africa (44 per cent).
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
