By comparison, merchandise trade in current US dollar terms was up by 4.3 per cent YoY in Q3 2024. This represents a significant improvement from the 1.8-per cent increase seen in Q2 2024 and the 1.4-per cent contraction observed in Q1, a WTO release said.
Seasonally-adjusted world merchandise trade volume rose by 1.1 per cent quarter on quarter and by 3.3 per cent YoY in Q3 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of moderate trade expansion, WTO said.
For the year to September, this was up by 2.4 per cent YoY.
Slower trade growth in value terms than in volume terms shows a slight drop in prices of traded goods during the first three quarters.
For the year to September, world trade volume was up by 2.4 per cent YoY—slightly less than the WTO’s most recent forecast of 2.7 per cent for 2024 issued on October 10; the value of merchandise trade was up by 1.6 per cent YoY.
Slower trade growth in value terms than in volume terms implies a small (less than 1 per cent) decline in prices of traded goods during this period.
The projected 2.7 per cent increase in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2024 is attainable if QoQ growth in Q4 2024 continues at around the same rate as in Q3. This is quite likely since the most recent WTO Goods Trade Barometer of December 9 signalled continued trade expansion through the end of the year.
However, the short-term outlook for trade is clouded by rising global trade tensions, WTO noted.
In Q3 2024, quarterly merchandise trade volume growth was positive in most regions, with the important exception of Europe.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former member states, recorded the largest QoQ increase in exports at 5.4 per cent.
North America followed with a 2.1-per cent rise, while Asia and the Middle East respectively posted gains of 1.6 per cent and 1.5 per cent.
South and Central America and the Caribbean saw modest export growth of 0.2 per cent, while shipments from Africa only grew by 0.1 per cent.
The CIS region also led on the import side with a 3.3 per cent QoQ rise in Q3 2024, followed by Africa at 2.5 per cent and North America at 2.3 per cent. Asia recorded a 2 per cent increase, while the Middle East posted a 1-per cent gain.
South and Central America saw its imports grow just 0.6 per cent in Q3 2024.
Europe was the only region to record negative export and import volume growth of minus 0.2 per cent and minus 0.3 per cent respectively, as manufacturing continued to experience a prolonged downturn.
Europe’s trade performance in the first three quarters this year was slightly worse than the WTO’s October forecast for this year. The region’s exports during this period were down by 1.8 per cent YoY, while imports fell by 3.3 per cent. These contractions were slightly worse than the projected declines of 1.4 per cent for exports and 2.3 per cent for imports for the year.
Latest figures in value terms till September show robust growth in most Asian and Latin American economies, with some notable exceptions.
The strongest export performance was recorded by Argentina, which saw a 17-per cent surge in goods shipments despite uncertainty related to its economic reforms.
Vietnam also stood out for the strength of its exports, which were up by 15 per cent YoY. Other large economies saw more modest increases, including China (5 per cent) and the United States (3 per cent).
Extra-EU exports were up by just 1 per cent YoY, while exports were down in Japan (minus 2 per cent) and the United Kingdom (minus 5 per cent).
Vietnam had the strongest import growth, with a 17-per cent YoY increase, balancing its strong export performance. Other Asian economies saw imports rise sharply, including Malaysia (13 per cent) and Singapore (7 per cent).
The United States saw a 5-per cent rise in imports, while China’s imports were only up by 2 per cent. By contrast, extra-EU imports fell by 5 per cent, while those of Japan dropped 6 per cent.
Among other reporting economies, Argentina saw the sharpest decline in imports, which plunged 22 per cent amidst a continuing economic crisis.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
