From September 30 to October 15, the CEPEA/ESALQ Cotton Index (with payments due in 8 days) saw a 2.16 per cent decrease, closing at BRL 3.9328 (~$0.69) per pound on October 15.
Brazilian cotton prices noticed minor fluctuations in early October due to low market liquidity as most of the 2023-24 crop has been processed.
Despite this, increased profitability is encouraging producers to expand the area for 2024-25 by 2.9 per cent.
Global production forecasts from USDA and ICAC predict slight increases, though consumption may slightly outpace supply in the upcoming season.
According to data from the Brazilian Cotton Producers Association (ABRAPA), 63.67 per cent of the 2023-24 crop had been processed by October 10. National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts a 2.9 per cent increase in the planted area for the 2024-25 season, with a total of 2 million hectares. However, productivity is expected to decline by 3.1 per cent, bringing yields to 1,831 kg per hectare, resulting in a projected production of 3.67 million tons—slightly lower than the 2023-24 season, CEPEA said in its latest fortnightly report on the Brazilian cotton market.
Globally, the USDA reported on October 11 that the 2024-25 world cotton production could reach 25.395 million tons, an increase of 0.2 per cent compared to its September forecast, and up 2.6 per cent from the previous season. World consumption is projected to be 25.199 million tons, just 0.77 per cent lower than the global supply.
Meanwhile, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) revised its 2024-25 global production forecast slightly down to 25.49 million tons, a 0.51 per cent drop from its earlier September estimate but a 5.67 per cent increase compared to the previous season. Global consumption remains projected at 25.87 million tons.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
